33. But with vaccines beginning to roll out, it’s possible to be cautiously optimistic that the next normal will emerge this year or next. 33 In the United States, the penetration of e-commerce was forecast in 2019 to reach 24 percent by 2024; by July 2020, it had hit 33 percent of total retail sales. The definition of leadership is seeing protégés succeed in their own ventures. 2021 will be the year of transition. They also describe successful companies as being able to adapt their leadership development practices according to their business goals, needs or challenges. On the other hand, global fundraising has stayed strong—$348.5 billion through September 2020, on par with the previous five years—and deal making in Asia has more than doubled. Since then, the US federal government has allocated trillions in COVID-19-crisis relief. Indeed, just as the terms “prewar” and “postwar” are commonly used to describe the 20th century, generations to come will likely discuss the pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 eras. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new After the 2008–09 financial crisis, for example, international business travel took five years to recover, compared with two years for international leisure travel. Indeed, one of the first things people do as they grow more prosperous is to travel—first close to home and then further afield. The potential of the Bio Revolution goes well beyond health; as much as 60 percent of the physical inputs to the global economy, according to MGI, could theoretically be produced biologically. Lead 4 New Trends in Leadership to Watch in 2020 It's a new decade, and that means approaches and perspectives are bound to change. 34. A McKinsey survey published in October 2020 found that companies are three times likelier than they were before the crisis to conduct at least 80 percent of their customer interactions digitally. Modern Theory Definition: The Modern Theory is the integration of valuable concepts of the classical models with the social and behavioral sciences. “Business and industry: Time series/trend charts,” US Census Bureau, December 15, 2020, census.gov. For insurance, it’s about personalizing the customer experience. to training and professional development (Is there such a thing as remote mentorship?). The COVID-19 crisis has created an imperative for companies to reconfigure their operations—and an opportunity to transform them. And a McKinsey Global Survey in February 2020 found that a majority of the executives and investment professionals surveyed said they believed that environmental, social, and governance programs already create short- and long-term value and will do so even more five years from now. Healthcare system reform is difficult. Disruption creates space for entrepreneurs—and that’s what is happening in the United States, in particular, but also in other major economies. The “m” is for “messenger” because the molecules carry genetic instructions to the cells to create a protein that prompts an immune response. How fast and deep confidence will recover is an open question. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new The COVID-19 crisis has hurt in some ways, with global deal value down 12 percent compared with the first three quarters of 2019 and deal counts down 30 percent. They may subscribe to a single style of leadership or a combination of the best practices in people management. 14 Goals • Describe fundamental prerequisite for effective governance • Introduce two contemporary trends that widen the gap • Describe the leadership challenges associated with bridging the gap • Identify attitude/mindset to deal with the 17 While the majority of companies, or a good 89% of them, agree that developing leaders is a worthy business activity, only 10% of C-suite executives think that their leadership programs produce results that are helpful for their organization. Andy Bounds and Chris Tighe, “Starting a business in the midst of a pandemic,” Financial Times, November 26, 2020, ft.com. The countries where fewer than two-thirds of respondents had tried new shopping behaviors were the United Kingdom (63 percent), France (56 percent), Germany (50 percent), and Japan (30 percent). For example, major retailers are increasingly automating checkout. Decrease of age-based seniority. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that more than 20 percent of the global workforce could work the majority of its time away from the office—and be just as effective. Special-purpose acquisition companies, which merge with a company to take it public, are “having a moment” in 2020, as McKinsey recently noted. Another strong trend for the future is collective leadership. During the COVID-19 crisis, one area that has seen tremendous growth is digitization, meaning everything from online customer service to remote working to supply-chain reinvention to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to improve operations. Evidence shows that the benefits of reskilling current staff, rather than letting them go and then finding new people, typically costs less and brings benefits that outweigh the costs. Today's business environments are fraught with challenges due to the changing demographics and the employee expectations of a diverse workforce. The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the interconnectedness of business and society. Millions of Americans don’t think so,” Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2020, wsj.com. There’s no going back. In this section, we’ll delve deeper into leadership trends that have the potential to make an impact to the modern workplace, including your own organization. Within this context of rapid change and organizational response, three broad trends are emerging, which are shaping leadership and leadership development. Regulators have also reacted with speed and creativity, establishing clear guidelines and encouraging thoughtful collaboration. 7 There is no reason to believe that the rise in global prosperity will reverse itself or that human curiosity will diminish. Plato was right: necessity is indeed the mother of invention. Stakeholder capitalism isn’t about being the most woke or about fending off pesky activists. These research methods are proving more accurate in determining employee satisfactio… That isn’t an enviable precedent. And while debt repayments from 73 poor countries have been frozen, the obligations still exist. 15. 21 Strikingly, the biggest increases came in countries that had previously been relatively cautious about shopping online. YPO. More positively, in the past, it has taken a decade or longer for game-changing technologies to evolve from cool new things to productivity drivers. US small-business revenue fell more than 30 percent between January and December 2020. That’s why we expect to see substantial portfolio adjustment as companies with healthy balance sheets seek opportunities in a context of discounted assets and lower valuations. To put it another way, the first half of 2020 saw an increase in e-commerce equivalent to that of the previous ten years. 4. The first B Corporations were certified in 2007; now, there are more than 3,500 of them. Seth Borko, Wouter Geerts, and Haixia Wang. That has put the country into new fiscal territory, with the US public debt projected to be bigger than the economy in fiscal year 2021—the first time that has been the case since shortly after World War II. Reinvent your business. During and after the pandemic, though, there is a question about business travel: Exactly when is it necessary? 17. 19. You need to be the best manager you can be for your employees. Germany, Romania, and Switzerland, for example, had the three lowest online-penetration rates prior to the COVID-19 crisis; since then, usage increased 28, 25, and 18 percentage points, respectively—more than in any other markets. Perhaps most important, it requires commitment from the top that inculcates a culture of lifelong learning. Companies will have to make decisions on everything from real estate (Do we need this building, office, or floor?) Venture-capital activity dipped only slightly in the first half of 2020. There are two important challenges related to the transition to working away from the office. Although interest rates are generally low, that could mean raising taxes or cutting spending— or both. We stand by those assertions. That’s largely how the United States managed to reduce its national debt from 118 percent of GDP in 1946 to a low of 31 percent in 1981. 27. As the pandemic recedes, governments will have to figure out how to address their fiscal difficulties. To the extent that they do so, greater productivity will follow. The modern leader doesn’t stand apart from their team, they stand with them. China’s consumers are relieved—and spending accordingly. Not only have the positions requiring a leader transformed, but the actual group of individuals requiring one have dramatically changed. Although interest rates are generally low, that could mean raising taxes or cutting spending—or both. The United States is transitioning away from coal and is innovating in a wide array of green technologies, such as batteries, carbon-capture methods, and electric vehicles. 16. It’s no secret that technology is evolving at a breathtaking pace. Arun Arora, Hamza Khan, Sajal Kohli, and Caroline Tufft, “DTC e-commerce: How consumer brands can get it right,” November 2020. He used to challenge his team by letting them try their best to convince him about their great ideas that eventually led them to give positive results. Such shocks, then, are far from shocking: they are predictable features of doing business that need to be managed like any other. But real leadership is powerfully rewarding. He enjoys sharing his knowledge on human resource solutions, as well as helping businesses achieve greater growth, competitiveness, and profitability. For healthcare, it’s about establishing virtual options as a norm. In return, employees should feel welcome to give their honest assessment of your leadership style, so that everyone in the organization can help build a collaborative environment. Organizational charts with a manger at the head are indicators that traditional leadership exists in a company. hapter 4 explores what ‘good’ leadership development looks like, engaging with different theories of learning, the role of leadership … By definition, leisure travel is discretionary. China was an exception—it has an older population but is conspicuously optimistic. 18 But only a third said they were prepared to deal with the issue. We admit that we didn’t see this coming. 22 Video calls and collaboration tools that enable remote working, for example, could replace some onsite meetings and conferences. Eric Lamarre and Kate Smaje, “Accelerating digital capabilities to recover from the COVID-19 crisis,” July 21, 2020. But the trend is clear: many consumers are moving online. 29. For example, according to Michael Fisher, president and CEO of Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, there were 2,000 telehealth visits recorded at the organization in all of 2019—and 5,000 a week in July 2020. Without relaxing safety and efficacy requirements, they have shown just how quickly they can collect and evaluate data. Not everyone who can, will; even so, that is a once-in-several-generations change. But the effective use of technology during the pandemic—and the economic constraints that many companies will face for years after it—could augur the beginning of a long-term structural change in business travel. Whatever the case, one thing that you have to consider as a team lead, manager or officer of your company is how your leadership principles are influencing the people around you. level seen prior to the pandemic, and high-end domestic travel is actually ahead of it. Traditional leadership styles are still relevant in today's workplace, but they may need to be combined with new approaches in line with how leadership is defined for the 21st century. In nine of 13 major countries surveyed by McKinsey, at least two-thirds of consumers say they have tried new kinds of shopping. The modern-day leader: 10 new trends in leadership and management 1. Nor a Jew, Musli... Serena Williams and Mark Cuban Invest in Digital Support Network for New Moms, Why the U.S. Should Grant Edward Snowden Amnesty, 7 Ways to Read More of What Can Help You Lead. The days of the “hero” leader, or “the smartest person in the room” who must know... 2. Modern examples of traditional leadership are found in many corporations. So the great rebalancing began. Learn about We expect that, in developing markets—Brazil and India, for example—the pandemic will accelerate digital shopping, albeit from a low base. The implication is that brands that haven’t figured out how to reach consumers in new ways had better catch up, or they will be left behind. Seth Borko, Wouter Geerts, and Haixia Wang, The travel industry turned upside down: Insights, analysis, and actions for travel executives, September 2020. In previous downturns, the strong came out stronger, and the weak got weaker, went under, or were bought. Large-scale testing, as well as tracing and quarantine measures, began almost immediately. The CEO of one major travel company told us that, beginning in the third quarter of 2020, business was “pretty much back to normal” when referring to growth. To realize this goal, you need to focus on specific soft skills, such as emotional intelligence and people skills – because employees feel comfortable toward someone who’s able to relate to their concerns, sentiments or challenges. Here are five emerging leadership trends successful executives need to be aware of to succeed in 2019: Replacing ineffective unconscious bias training with a focus on conscious inclusion Efforts are undoubtedly being made to hire a more diverse workforce in order to build teams of people with differing backgrounds, skills and opinions, however unconscious bias still operates in companies … Something went wrong. The first country to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the first to emerge from it. Valentina Romei, “Pandemic triggers surge in business start-ups across major countries,” Financial Times, December 30, 2020, ft.com. 21. There is a case, then, for businesses to take action to limit their climate risks—for example, by making their capital investments more climate resilient or by diversifying their supply chains. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella noted in April 2020 that “we’ve seen two years’ worth of digital transformation in two months.” TREND 1: A Focus on Applying and Sustaining Behaviors For too long leadership development has been approached as a one-and-done experience. Any given company can expect a shutdown lasting a month or so every 3.7 years. “Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis,” December 2020. The announcement of several promising COVID-19 vaccines has been a much-needed shot of good news. In these and other ways, consumers have pulled back. That looks comparatively trivial compared with Japan, which has the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio, at more than 200 percent. (WHO lists 60 candidate COVID-19 vaccines that have advanced to clinical trials; many don’t use mRNA.). Alex Lynn, “Covid-19 adds fuel to India’s private equity explosion,” PEI Media, November 30, 2020, privateequityinternational.com; Carmela Mendoza, “Flight to familiarity intensifies with fewer funds,” PEI Media, October 19, 2020, privateequityinternational.com. Successful reskilling starts with knowing what skills are needed, both right now and in the near future; offering tailored learning opportunities to meet them; and evaluating what does and doesn’t work. Singularity University Global Summit As mentioned earlier, leadership only becomes significant when it’s in line with the thrusts of the organization. For consumer industries, and particularly for retail, that could mean improving digital and omnichannel business models. Many (though by no means all) countries are using their recovery plans to push through existing environmental policy priorities: The imperative for businesses is clear along two fronts. 30 Over the past three years, the importance to move away from complex structures and simplify organizations has become clear. In the eurozone, the combined budget deficits in October were 11.6 percent of GDP, compared with 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2020; total debt hit a record 95 percent of GDP. As some of our colleagues recently noted, “There is a term for an enlightened company with the most perfect intentions that does not make money: defunct.” Digital upends old models. Unlike previous vaccines, many of which use an inactivated or attenuated form of a virus to create resistance to it, the vaccines created by Moderna and the BioNTech–Pfizer partnership use mRNA. While the country began seeing a significant increase in new cases in December, fewer than 1,000 South Koreans died from COVID-19 in all of 2020. Because a laissez-faire leader does not spend their time intensely managing employees, they often have more time to … As the pandemic recedes, governments will have to figure out how to address their fiscal difficulties. Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, “Safeguarding our lives and livelihoods: The imperative of our time,” March 23, 2020. A survey published in November 2020 of 1,500 self-employed people found that 20 percent say they are likely to leave self-employment when they can. The 5 Biggest Leadership Trends to Watch in 2019 One way to get ready for 2019 is to focus on the trends that are coming your way. 11 This year, in light of an expanding audience, I’m doing two posts. But for economic stability—and in fairness to future generations—it needs to be taken seriously, not kicked down the road. Laura LaBerge, Clayton O’Toole, Jeremy Schneider, and Kate Smaje “How COVID-19 has pushed companies over the technology tipping point—and transformed business forever,” October 2020. The larger context is also informative. Investing in employees can also foster loyalty, customer satisfaction, and positive brand perception. The higher the score, the stronger the company’s financial position. For example, gene-editing technologies could curb malaria, which kills more than 250,000 people a year. Enter your name and email to receive 7 of our best cover stories over 7 weeks for free! 6. EarthX 35. But with the excitement of AI and new technology comes fear and uncertainty. Laura LaBerge, Clayton O’Toole, Jeremy Schneider, and Kate Smaje “. In March 2020, some of our McKinsey colleagues argued that the COVID-19 crisis could be the “imperative of our time.” Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker, November 30, 2020, tracktherecovery.org. It will not mean going back to the conditions that prevailed in 2019. Think of it as “just in time plus.” The “plus” stands for “just in case,” meaning more sophisticated risk management. 16 When he’s not working, he’s watching TV shows about designing, such as "Tiny House Nation," "Forged in Fire," and "Ellen’s Design Challenge. The real definition of leadership is apparent when you find an inspired, empowered workforce; a solid, profitable business; and a thoughtful, deliberate business owner. Jomel Alos is a Consultant at Guthrie-Jensen Consultants, a management training and consultancy firm in the Philippines. Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, London, United Kingdom: A. Millar, 1759. “And whatever we learn through this process—it must not go to waste.”. World Travel & Tourism Council, wttc.org. Too often, investments in prevention and public-health capabilities are undervalued; the experience of COVID-19 demonstrates how costly, in both lives and livelihoods, such thinking can be. That wasn’t just a holiday phenomenon. Before the COVID-19 crisis, the idea of remote working was in the air but not proceeding very far or fast. Peer pressure may also play a part: once one company gets back to face-to-face meetings, their competitors may not want to hold back. In Europe, overall digital adoption is almost universal (95 percent), compared with 81 percent at the start of the pandemic. Now, with the first digital revolution, new possib… 30. Anniek Bao, “Travel rebounds over China’s national day holiday,” Caixin Global, October 9, 2020, caixinglobal.com; Monica Buchanan Pitrelli, “More than 600 million people traveled in China during ‘Golden Week’,” CNBC, October 9, 2020, cnbc.com; Guang Chen, Will Enger, Steve Saxon, and Jackey Yu, “. Cindy Levy, Mihir Mysore, Kevin Sneader, and Bob Sternfels, “, Kurt Chauviere, Alastair Green, and Tao Tan, “. There are lines outside stores, but they are often due to physical-distancing requirements. Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, London, United Kingdom: A. Millar, 1759. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners We do not believe there is a conflict between the two. Business will also have a role. In the third quarter of 2020 alone, there were more than 1.5 million new-business applications in the United States—almost double the figure for the same period in 2019. As a leader, you should be able to educate your employees about current market conditions and influence your employees to be more interested in new ideas, which can bring about improvements or innovations for the company. In a study that looked at 615 large- and midcap US publicly listed companies from 2001 to 2015, MGI found that those with a long-term view—something that’s a core of stakeholder capitalism—outperformed the rest in earnings, revenue, investment, and job growth. 2021 will be the year of transition. World Travel & Tourism Council, wttc.org. Jared Spataro, “2 years of digital transformation in 2 months,” Microsoft, April 30, 2020, microsoft.com. Britain is somewhere in between. Ivy • Eight months is the average duration of most leadership These can range from determining your employees’ leave patterns to analyzing your agent’s speech nuances during client calls – all of which can give you insights on how to help your employees perform their tasks better. Globally, PE firms are sitting on almost $1.5 trillion of “dry powder”—unallocated capital that’s ready to be invested. Over the course of a decade, companies can expect losses of 42 percent of a year’s profits from disruptions. Just as digital-economy companies have powered stock-market returns in the past couple of decades, so green-technology companies could play that role in the coming decades. In this article we look at 10 qualities of the modern leader and how leadership plays an … 25. In the United Kingdom, debt rose to more than £2 trillion, a record and more than 100 percent of GDP. Arun Arora, Hamza Khan, Sajal Kohli, and Caroline Tufft, “DTC e-commerce: How consumer brands can get it right,” November 2020. “The Bio Revolution: Innovations transforming economies, societies, and our lives,” McKinsey Global Institute, May 13, 2020. Through August 2020, they had accounted for 81 out of 111 US IPOs. It’s up to leaders to as… The key is using relevant strategies that can attract, engage, and retain workers across these generations. Jared Spataro, “2 years of digital transformation in 2 months,” Microsoft, April 30, 2020, microsoft.com. Workforce development was a priority even before the pandemic. “Risk, resilience, and rebalancing in global value chains,” McKinsey Global Institute, August 6, 2020. Gwynn Guilford and Charity L. Scott, “Is it insane to start a business during coronavirus? Put it all together, and we don’t think the PE industry is going to keep its powder dry for much longer; there are simply going to be too many new investment opportunities. Instead of relying on age or length of service as the basis for promotion, you should come up with other ways to discover leadership talent or capacity across all of your employees, whether they’re Gen X, baby boomers or Gen Y. We First Kimberly Amadeo, “US national debt by year compared to GDP and major events,” Balance, October 9, 2020, thebalance.com. For example, popular business leadership consultant Greg L. Thomas describes effective modern leadership as “the ability to articulate a vision, to embrace the values of that vision, and nurture an environment where everyone can reach the organisation’s goals and their own personal needs”. WE Day We needed tools for structure, communication, decision-making, and division of labour. For your coaching to matter, you’ll need to study your employees’ learning styles. 24. Consumers in continental Europe have bought more online but aren’t as enthusiastic as those in Britain and the United States to continue doing so. But it was a different normal: domestic travel was surging, but international travel was still depressed given pandemic-related border restrictions and concerns about health and safety. While manufacturing in China came back first, by September, so had consumer spending. The idea that businesses should seek to serve the interests of consumers, suppliers, workers, and society, as well as shareholders, isn’t new. tab. Being better prepared for the next pandemic, on both national and international levels, has to be a high priority. Paying down debt isn’t exciting to do. Except for international air travel, Chinese consumers have begun to act and spend largely as they did in precrisis times. “Productivity and costs: Third quarter 2020, revised,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 8, 2020, bls.gov. First, businesses need to respond to the sustainability concerns of investors. 1 There’s no question that coaching is an integral part of leadership development. Yes, many of those businesses are single-person establishments that could well stay that way—think of the restaurant chef turned caterer or the recent college graduate with a cool new app. “Making a daily ‘to be’ list: How a hospital system CEO is navigating the coronavirus crisis,” McKinsey Quarterly, July 23, 2020. Effective leadershipand specialist skills walked hand-in-hand. This time, though, there is a veritable flood of new small businesses. Are pantries safe?) And it worked. The COVID-19 pandemic has been an economic and human catastrophe, and it’s far from over. No doubt, governments all over the world will set up task forces, inquiries, and commissions to examine their actions related to the COVID-19 crisis. and 20 percent more than in the same month in 2019. 24 The next normal arrives: Trends that will define 2021—and beyond January 4, 2021 | Article. If salesclerks want to keep their jobs, they will need to learn new skills. In this article, we identify some of the trends that will shape the next normal. That evolution has not always been a seamless or elegant process: businesses had to scramble to install or adapt new technologies under intense pressure. Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal, “Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal,” March 23, 2020; Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal, “The future is not what it used to be: Thoughts on the shape of the next normal,” April 14, 2020. In the same way, you should take advantage of technology to help you in different areas of talent management, such as training, assessments, and other employee development activities. Please try again later. Australia also offers hope. In manufacturing, companies that adopt Industry 4.0 principles (meaning the application of data, analytics, human–machine interaction, advanced robotics, and 3-D printing) can offset half of the labor-cost differential between China and the United States. None of those things means that multinationals are going to ship all or most of their production back to their home markets. 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